NBA Finals Game 3 Preview: Can Thunder Survive Indy’s Arena?

Game 3 of the 2025 Finals goes down tonight—Thunder in Pacers territory!

The stage is Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and Indy’s playing its first Finals game in 25 years.

Mark this: Game 3 winners in a 1-1 NBA Finals win the series 80.5% of the time—not a stat you ignore.

Home-court advantage?

Real.

The Pacers are 6–2 in Indy this postseason.

The Thunder?

Just 4–3 on the road. A small edge—but in the playoffs and Finals, small edges matter.

🎯 Why I'm Picking Indiana Tonight

• Pressure’s on OKC on the road.

• Haliburton’s home crowd adrenaline may light him up.

• Pascal Siakam and Rick Carlisle bring centralized Finals experience—like college coaches on shuffleboard sticks. Their confidence rubs off.

🔍 Why I'm Worried About the Pacers

• Ball security: Indiana's turnovers loom large tonight. Nearly 18% of their possessions end in giveaways—way up from their 11.9% season rate. And remember: 25 turnovers in Game 1, the most by a winning team in Finals history since 1977. That isn’t just sloppy—it’s self-inflicted wounds.

• OKC’s pickpocket glory: The Thunder’s defense is snatching souls. They recorded 14 steals in Game 1—tied for the second most Indy allowed all year. Across Games 1 and 2, they’re averaging 12 steals per game—compared to Indy’s 7.3 SPG allowed in the regular season.

  
  

• SGA staying historic: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has stayed a step ahead. He’s dropped 72 points over two games—a record through a player’s first two Finals games—averaging 36 PPG with 3.5 SPG. But let’s run it all the way down:

  
  

  • 32.7 PPG in the regular season

  • 30.4 PPG in the postseason

  • 36.0 PPG in the Finals thus far

  • SGA's playing Finals-level two-way basketball—the kind that can flip a series all by itself.

• Hali’s aggression going missing: First-round postseason FT averages: 8 → 7 → 6 → 0 in the Finals. That’s not a showing of restraint—it’s a lack of gear. If he dials up the aggression tonight, the Pacers win. If not? Risky.

🔚 Final take

I’m backing the Pacers tonight, and here’s why: Home. Pressure. Experience. Growth.

But I wouldn’t be shocked if the Thunder stole ONE on the road.

Here’s hoping for tight plays, Game 7-worthy drama, and a crowd louder than KING KONG beating his chest and screaming at the top of a mountain.